I have a confession to make. I have probably had one of the best Thanksgivings I have had in a long time. I didn't watch TV. I wasn't subjected to an endless barrage of ads pushing Holiday Sales. I wasn't in line at a Big Box Last Night waiting for Midnight Madness (appropriately named) along with tens of thousands of bargain hunters around the country. I stayed home this weekend and avoided the insanity.
Having done all my shopping very early buying mostly on line, I was done before Thanksgiving. And I was not the only one. Many people I talked to about their shopping plans were "mostly" finished before Thanksgiving. So it was interesting to hear on the news that traffic was heavy but buying in the stores was light.
Buying online this weekend was a different story. Wal-Mart's website was hit so hard on Black Friday it went down several times for a total of 15 minutes as a estimated 22 Million People tried to access the TV and Electronic pages. Wal-Mart estimates this blackout probably cost them hundreds of thousands of dollars as frustrated shoppers went to other sites to buy.
E-Stores are reporting a different story. Ebay sold 14,000+ of the hard to get Xbox at an average price of $1,200, or nearly three times the retail price. Amazon.com sold out of its entire supply of X-Boxes in 29 seconds. Sold out it's entire supply of Mongoose Mountain bikes and Barbie Dolls in 15 minutes. Pricegrabber.com saw a 225% spike in traffic compared to the rest of November and most of that spike was on the TOY pages. Shopping.com saw a 40% spike in traffic over the daily average for the rest of the month.
The Nation Retail Foundation forecasts that 137 million shoppers will visit retail stores this Christmas shopping season (between Black Friday and Christmas Eve). Ebay had 7.5 million shoppers on Black Friday alone.
Depending on which research group you watched on the news shows this weekend; the estimates for online retail sales over the Thanksgiving weekend were between $1.15 billion and $1.73 billion. The general consensus is that web sales this Christmas season will jump up 30% percent over the same period last year to more than $27 billion.
The big box stores saw huge crowds and disappointing sales. To make matters worse, the cost of drawing in the crowds was huge considering the level or promotional pricing and discounting. Wal-Mart is now projecting flat sales to -.01% lower than last year for Black Friday. Other stores are reporting similar experiences.
I didn't shop online to save money. Truth be known; including shipping and insurance, I probably paid close to what those people who were standing in line paid.
I shopped online to avoid the mayhem usually associated with Christmas shopping. I hate the "hyper intensity" and "shark feeding frenzied" atmosphere in the stores. I hate the bad background music interlaced with endless "price promotion" broadcasts. I hate the way the stores are so full of merchandise, signs, and displays you have to almost walk sideways in the aisles.
I hate the way the worst in people come out in what is supposed to be one of the most joyful times of the year as local news delights in the endless running of the "road rage" incidents captured on video in mall parking lots.
I hate having to run gauntlet of panhandlers in the parking lots and coupon/flyer dispensers strategically positioned at the entrances like offensive linemen; and I am not alone feeling this way. The last couple of years the purchase of GIFT CARDS has increased dramatically. It is estimated this year there will be a 50% increase in GIFT CARD purchases this year.
I personally think that unless stores can improve the shopping experience to the point they won't need to use aggressive discounts to lure shoppers, the pendulum is going to keep swinging towards e-shopping.
I think the differences in shopping experiences between store shoppers and e-shoppers this Black Friday was best summed up by a television news interview of a woman who had been standing in line at a store since noon on Thanksgiving waiting for the store to open at Midnight. "I'm feeling pretty stupid about now."
Sunday, November 26, 2006
Friday, November 24, 2006
Ten Degrees of Separation
The other day I had a unique experience. I went to Sacramento and forgot my cell phone. It was like line out of a Joni Mitchell song. "You don't know what you've got till its gone."
When you don't have a cell phone you begin to notice how much you rely on cell phones. It wasn't until I got to Starbucks I was even aware I didn't have my phone. By then it was too late. I discovered it missing when I reached for it to call friends and let them know I had arrived in town so we could coordinate a meeting spot for lunch.
The first thing I noticed was that everyone else was on the phone…but me. The second thing I noticed is that pay phones are now as rare as…as pay phones. I went to Wal-Mart. All the pay phones that used to be at there were gone. I walked over to the fast food joint next door and could see the painted outline where two pay phones used to be.
I went across the street to the gas station. I know this station well because it is my regular refueling stop on my way to the Bay Area. I walked around to the side and the payphones were gone. How could a gas station not have a pay phone? Isn't there some kind of Federal Law mandating payphones at gas stations?
I went inside to ask where the pay phones were and was told they were gone because people kept vandalizing them. The Vandals kicked the Roman Army out of Germany in 406 A.D. starting the decline of the Roman Empire and now they've kicked pay phones out of just about every public place they occupied before. Could this be a trend?
In ten years the cell phone has gone from being a luxury gadget to being a vital necessity. You don't believe me? Leave your cell phone home for a day and see how much you depend on it.
This whole episode reminded me of a prophecy first made in the movie "The President's Analyst." In the movie, the President of THE PHONE COMPANY is making a chilling prediction. He wants the president of the United States to pass legislation to implant a phone chip in every newborn's head so that in a few years "all you will need to do to talk to anyone, anywhere at anytime is just think of them and you'll be instantly connected."
That day is already here. There is now a chip in everyone's hand (unless they leave it at home) and it didn't take legislation. There is no doubt in my mind that the cell phone companies are working the implants as I write this.
This little experience has caused me to take a very careful look at my life. Contrary to popular belief there are not Six Degrees of Separation between two strangers, there are ten (555) 555-5555.
When you don't have a cell phone you begin to notice how much you rely on cell phones. It wasn't until I got to Starbucks I was even aware I didn't have my phone. By then it was too late. I discovered it missing when I reached for it to call friends and let them know I had arrived in town so we could coordinate a meeting spot for lunch.
The first thing I noticed was that everyone else was on the phone…but me. The second thing I noticed is that pay phones are now as rare as…as pay phones. I went to Wal-Mart. All the pay phones that used to be at there were gone. I walked over to the fast food joint next door and could see the painted outline where two pay phones used to be.
I went across the street to the gas station. I know this station well because it is my regular refueling stop on my way to the Bay Area. I walked around to the side and the payphones were gone. How could a gas station not have a pay phone? Isn't there some kind of Federal Law mandating payphones at gas stations?
I went inside to ask where the pay phones were and was told they were gone because people kept vandalizing them. The Vandals kicked the Roman Army out of Germany in 406 A.D. starting the decline of the Roman Empire and now they've kicked pay phones out of just about every public place they occupied before. Could this be a trend?
In ten years the cell phone has gone from being a luxury gadget to being a vital necessity. You don't believe me? Leave your cell phone home for a day and see how much you depend on it.
This whole episode reminded me of a prophecy first made in the movie "The President's Analyst." In the movie, the President of THE PHONE COMPANY is making a chilling prediction. He wants the president of the United States to pass legislation to implant a phone chip in every newborn's head so that in a few years "all you will need to do to talk to anyone, anywhere at anytime is just think of them and you'll be instantly connected."
That day is already here. There is now a chip in everyone's hand (unless they leave it at home) and it didn't take legislation. There is no doubt in my mind that the cell phone companies are working the implants as I write this.
This little experience has caused me to take a very careful look at my life. Contrary to popular belief there are not Six Degrees of Separation between two strangers, there are ten (555) 555-5555.
Wednesday, November 08, 2006
Sign of the Times
I had to go out of town to one of the three cities left in the US still not served by Southwest Airlines. I had to fly another airline. I hadn’t flown them in quite a while and was looking forward to seeing if they learned anything while they were in bankruptcy.
As we pulled up to curbside check into I felt great. Southwest had about 40 people in line at curbside check in and my carrier had 5 people in line. I was thinking to myself this just might work out. Half an hour later, the Southwest line was gone and I still had one person in front of me. This was not a good sign.
Traveling by air these days is bad enough without having to deal with surly attitudes. My bad was overweight by eleven pounds and I was directed to check in inside because he is not allowed to accept over weight baggage. I went inside and there was another long line. It was still two hours before my flight and now I was having doubts that I was going to make my flight.
When I got inside, I asked why they couldn’t handle me outside, and the man behind the counter said, “I don’t know why not. All they had to do was tell you to move some clothes from one bag to the other.”
Fortunately, the flight was delayed and I made it just as they were boarding the plane. Then the irony struck me. I was happy my flight was delayed. This was not a good sign.
The flight was an evening flight – the kind of flight where most of the passengers are business travelers. The airline used to charge for head sets to watch the movie, but now they are free. I was just beginning to have hope this would be a pleasant flight after all, and then announced the movie: “Over the Hedge.” There was not a kid on the flight, just a load of grumpy tired business men moving from point A to point B.
The bad thing about the collapse of the airline industry has been full planes. Apparently the airline industry hasn’t noticed American’s are getting bigger. So the only thing that made flying comfortable was the empty middle seats. With the fully occupied planes, the comfort is gone. This flight was no exception it was full and since I was traveling at the last minute, I was shoehorned into the dreaded center seat. As I approached my row, I knew it was going to be a tight fit because I am a big guy to begin with and the other seats were occupied by the a couple of guys that looked like linemen in the NFL. This was not a good sign.
Due to the extended check in – the long the long line in security, I was not able to stop to get a coffee for the flight as I normally did. Not that that would have helped since you can’t carry any fluids on planes any more. The flight was very turbulent. The turbulence kept the stewardesses in their seats and the drink cart in the galley. No movie, no reading, no comfort, no drinking. So I arrived at Denver parched, frustrated and exhausted.
I stressed trying to get out of the plane to make my connection as I fought the Universal law of flying that says: “The tighter your connections between flights, the further back in the cabin you will be seated and the slower the people in front of you will move as they exit the plane.”
Thank God, my connecting flight was having engine trouble. Now instead of forty minutes between flights, I now had 4 hours between flights while they scrounged up a spare plane. I was happy on another level about this delay. Prior to this I had serious concerns about the airline’s ability to get the baggage to my connecting flight on time. Now I am confident they will. I am happy my flight is going to be seriously late? This is not a good sign.
I use my time wisely. I return my calls. I respond to my email. I eat a late dinner. Now I have to kill three hours and thirty minutes.
I am a little giddy as I get on the plane because the computer system screwed up and assigned me an aisle seat. I should have known this was just the Universe’s way of setting me up for the fall one last time on this flight. After take off, I reached up to turn on my reading light…and it didn’t work.
The reading lights for everyone else worked. I realized I was being tested at the moment: What did I want more: to read my book, which would now require me to trade seats with the person in the middle seat; or to sit on the aisle? It wasn’t even close. I decided I would continue to sit on the aisle. Having made the decision not to move, I thought I would try to take a nap for the remaining three hours of the flight to Miami, but the Universe wasn’t finished with me yet… the seat refused to recline. This is not a good sign.
As I sit upright in the dark, I wonder if I can sue Southwest for not flying to Miami from Reno, and decide if I ever tried to do that I’d be condemned to a lifetime of “C” boarding passes (Southwest fliers will know what I am talking about.), so I let the urge pass and suffer in silence, upright, in the dark, for the next three hours.
I got to Miami. It was dark. It was late. It was raining. I was looking for some kind of sign that all my suffering was going to be worth it. That my trip under such adverse conditions was going to be a meaningful experience. It was going to be an enlightening experience. I was looking for a way to make lemonade out of my experience so far as I loaded my bags into the rental car.
At that point a homeless person wandering through the parking lot asked me for money, and when I refused, he opened his zipper and peed at me and said “Welcome to Miami asshole.” This was not a good sign.
As we pulled up to curbside check into I felt great. Southwest had about 40 people in line at curbside check in and my carrier had 5 people in line. I was thinking to myself this just might work out. Half an hour later, the Southwest line was gone and I still had one person in front of me. This was not a good sign.
Traveling by air these days is bad enough without having to deal with surly attitudes. My bad was overweight by eleven pounds and I was directed to check in inside because he is not allowed to accept over weight baggage. I went inside and there was another long line. It was still two hours before my flight and now I was having doubts that I was going to make my flight.
When I got inside, I asked why they couldn’t handle me outside, and the man behind the counter said, “I don’t know why not. All they had to do was tell you to move some clothes from one bag to the other.”
Fortunately, the flight was delayed and I made it just as they were boarding the plane. Then the irony struck me. I was happy my flight was delayed. This was not a good sign.
The flight was an evening flight – the kind of flight where most of the passengers are business travelers. The airline used to charge for head sets to watch the movie, but now they are free. I was just beginning to have hope this would be a pleasant flight after all, and then announced the movie: “Over the Hedge.” There was not a kid on the flight, just a load of grumpy tired business men moving from point A to point B.
The bad thing about the collapse of the airline industry has been full planes. Apparently the airline industry hasn’t noticed American’s are getting bigger. So the only thing that made flying comfortable was the empty middle seats. With the fully occupied planes, the comfort is gone. This flight was no exception it was full and since I was traveling at the last minute, I was shoehorned into the dreaded center seat. As I approached my row, I knew it was going to be a tight fit because I am a big guy to begin with and the other seats were occupied by the a couple of guys that looked like linemen in the NFL. This was not a good sign.
Due to the extended check in – the long the long line in security, I was not able to stop to get a coffee for the flight as I normally did. Not that that would have helped since you can’t carry any fluids on planes any more. The flight was very turbulent. The turbulence kept the stewardesses in their seats and the drink cart in the galley. No movie, no reading, no comfort, no drinking. So I arrived at Denver parched, frustrated and exhausted.
I stressed trying to get out of the plane to make my connection as I fought the Universal law of flying that says: “The tighter your connections between flights, the further back in the cabin you will be seated and the slower the people in front of you will move as they exit the plane.”
Thank God, my connecting flight was having engine trouble. Now instead of forty minutes between flights, I now had 4 hours between flights while they scrounged up a spare plane. I was happy on another level about this delay. Prior to this I had serious concerns about the airline’s ability to get the baggage to my connecting flight on time. Now I am confident they will. I am happy my flight is going to be seriously late? This is not a good sign.
I use my time wisely. I return my calls. I respond to my email. I eat a late dinner. Now I have to kill three hours and thirty minutes.
I am a little giddy as I get on the plane because the computer system screwed up and assigned me an aisle seat. I should have known this was just the Universe’s way of setting me up for the fall one last time on this flight. After take off, I reached up to turn on my reading light…and it didn’t work.
The reading lights for everyone else worked. I realized I was being tested at the moment: What did I want more: to read my book, which would now require me to trade seats with the person in the middle seat; or to sit on the aisle? It wasn’t even close. I decided I would continue to sit on the aisle. Having made the decision not to move, I thought I would try to take a nap for the remaining three hours of the flight to Miami, but the Universe wasn’t finished with me yet… the seat refused to recline. This is not a good sign.
As I sit upright in the dark, I wonder if I can sue Southwest for not flying to Miami from Reno, and decide if I ever tried to do that I’d be condemned to a lifetime of “C” boarding passes (Southwest fliers will know what I am talking about.), so I let the urge pass and suffer in silence, upright, in the dark, for the next three hours.
I got to Miami. It was dark. It was late. It was raining. I was looking for some kind of sign that all my suffering was going to be worth it. That my trip under such adverse conditions was going to be a meaningful experience. It was going to be an enlightening experience. I was looking for a way to make lemonade out of my experience so far as I loaded my bags into the rental car.
At that point a homeless person wandering through the parking lot asked me for money, and when I refused, he opened his zipper and peed at me and said “Welcome to Miami asshole.” This was not a good sign.
Wednesday, November 01, 2006
Money For Nothing
“You are entitled to a free trip to Las Vegas. Stay on the line and one of our operators will be with you in a minute to give you the details on how you can enjoy a weekend in Sin City…on Us!.” In other words “Money for Nothing...” and being in Las Vegas, there is the implication “…and Chicks for Free!”
(http://www.lyricsfreak.com/d/dire+straits/money+for+nothing_20040681.html)
Ah…Money for Nothing. Who wouldn’t want that? This is a permanent part of the American Dream and it keeps resurfacing in one form after another on almost a daily basis. What kind of a secret buyer would I be if I didn’t see what the catch is because we all know there is no such thing as a free lunch let alone money for nothing; so I stayed on the phone to hear what the catch is.
They lied right off the bat. The operator wasn’t there in a minute. It was seven minutes. If I weren’t doing research I’d have hung up about five minutes and thirty-seconds ago; which got me to thinking. Since I didn’t hang up, and they didn’t seem to concerned about that…there had to be a reason why they were keeping me on hold. So I began to listen closer to the advertorials playing between snippets of the worst hold music in the world.
I am almost praying for an operator to come on to save me from the hold music. As I type this I have a revelation. The horrible hold music is their secret weapon. The dangle the promise of a weekend in “Sin City” on them, implying all expenses paid, then they pummel your brain until every shred of common sense is beaten out of you, and when the pitch comes, with few brain cells left functioning, you’ll sign up no questions asked.
“Hello, I’m Amanda. Have you ever been to Las Vegas?” So I decide to play dumb to see what the pitch is, “Not for quite a while.” Basically what followed next was a very long, a very dry, and a very boring presentation on Vacation Timeshares.
I was very upset, because I had waited on line and suffered through the horrible music and endless series of commercials on the phone, and now that I am talking to the operator with a flat voice obviously reading from a script, I am insulted. I am insulted by the fact they can put together an approach this bad, this poorly executed and have it work.
Then it hit me, the approach works because of greed! Greed is the reason bad telemarketing works.
Greed is the reason people will eat the uneatable and in the process humiliate themselves on national television. Greed is the reason why people will spend money they can’t afford on lottery tickets. Greed is the reason why smart people make bad choices. Greed is why students cheat on tests and term papers, to raise their test scores high enough to get into good colleges so they can get great jobs and make a lot of money.
Greed is also why smart people get caught when they do things they shouldn’t. I watched a documentary on crime where some very highly paid computer engineers figured out a way rig slot machines. All they needed to do was to consistently win a little over time and they could have milked the gaming industry forever, but they got greedy and won a lot in a very short time and got caught.
Greed is why people lose money investing in real estate and the stock markets, they want big money fast, and safe stable investments take too long to pay off for them. It’s why the “penny stock market” continues to flourish despite a long and public history of people losing all the money they invest.
There is a saying everyone knows and agrees is true. "If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is." Yet people overlook it when it comes to making investments. Greed is why Nigerians can send emails around the world and get people to send them money and reveal personal banking information before they get taken for everything they have.
A friend of mine owns a Oriental Rug store, and one day he got ten orders online for thousands of dollars of rugs. He ran the cards and they were approved, then the shipping clerk came to him when he noticed one odd thing the ten orders had in common. The "ship to" was the same address in Nigeria. What are the odds that ten US citizens moved to the same house in Nigeria and had the urge to remodel at the same time.
He called the bank, they did research and called back a couple of hours later and informed him all those credit cards were now in the process of being cancelled due to fraudulent transactions. Seems that ten more greedy people fell for the Nigerian get rich quick scheme.
It’s hard to believe that in this day and age, Ponzi schemes are still going strong which brings us full circle to the end of the timeshare presentation. As she was winding up, Amanda talked about my timeshare being more than a vacation option, it is also an investment opportunity.
Should I ever decide I am through taking vacations I can sell it and recover my “investment” and basically had all those vacations in wonderful places around the world for “free.” It’s just more money for nothing; and with the “mandatory attendance” at the presentation where I sign up being in Sin City the implications are “..and chicks for free!”
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