Lose it Forward

I didn't plan to spend a lot of time writing about Christmas shopping, but there is an undercurrent of discontent as so many levels or the retail world this season, it needs review from many directions. Here's mine.

While shopping this past weekend I witnessed the seeds of destruction for the New Year Sales being planted. This was big home accessory store, and to drive sales they were having a 50% off sale on all Christmas items. The manager must have been under pressure to get sales levels up higher because he came on the PA system and announced, "take an additional ten percent off on all items purchased between now and closing."

The immediate result was that all customers who had completed their purchases ran back the cash registers and customer service counter and demanded their "additional ten percent off" which resulted in an wave of confusion washing over the cash registers. The check out lines slowed to a crawl as the cashiers had to cancel the previous sales and reenter them manually with the additional discounts.

The next thing that happened is customers began grabbing more Christmas stuff. So now the main stock for the "after Christmas sale" was flying out of the store before Christmas. I heard customers even comment on the fact they are going to get such a jump on next year's Christmas shopping now, they may not have to shop the New Year Sales.

A perfect example of "Lose it Forward."

As I watched, what I began to think of as the "Titanic Sale," continued to slide along the iceberg. Three shoppers who had already paid and left the store, came back after their friends told them about the additional discount. The three of them went to customer service and demanded the additional discount also. The manager approved it.

So now the cashiers are once again tied up canceling sales and re-keying them to reflect the additional discount causing lines to back up again. As people waited in line, two customers abandoned their shopping carts and walked out the store.

However, the floor traffic picked up as two women called several of their friends still shopping in different stores in the complex and told them about the 60% off sale.

Let's go to the root cause of this sale in the first place. To my mind, one of the main reasons sales are down is lack of Christmas spirit in the stores this season. I am not the only one saying it. In addition to numerous business reports saying the same thing, millions of consumers are saying it as well by where they decide to shop.

Most of the reporters are reporting flat to slightly negative floor traffic. The Internet stores are reporting about a 26% increase in sales over this point last year.

With traffic down, the sales are starting earlier this year. By January the public is going to be "sale weary" and traffic will drop further causing the "panic discounts" to get bigger earlier in the shopping period after Christmas and New Year. The newspapers will report another disappointing holiday shopping season – the fifth in a row.

The earlier sales and bigger discounts are going to kick start "Lose it Forward" into high gear as the media begins reporting a lack of "follow through" in January sales numbers as retail floor traffic continues to fall.

Lost & Found

Each time I go into the stores and malls this Christmas season it makes me a little sad because the last thing I see is anything resembling Christmas spirit. This past weekend I had some errands to do so I decided to see if I could find any signs of Christmas spirit while I was at it. I went into several stores and looked. The signs were not good.

Everyone was rushing about and not a smile to be seen anywhere. No one is wearing anything resembling Christmas garb. No Christmas sweaters. No Santa stocking caps. If it wasn't for the unusually full shopping carts and Holiday Themed Sale banners you'd think this was a normal shopping weekend.

I thought to myself, "Maybe it’s a stealth Christmas spirit." So I tested that theory. "Merry Christmas!" I said to a passing shopper. He did a double take and muttered "Thanks." as he moved on down the aisle. I know that scientifically you need more tests to prove a point so I continued to do experiments saying Merry Christmas to all the shoppers that I met on my way through the mall to parking lot. I kept score on the back of an envelope and test results proving the existence of the Christmas spirit did not look good.

Positive Results = 2

Negative Results = 6

Neutral Results = 16

"What?" Or Some Variation = 4

It was beginning to look like Christmas spirit was on life support until I went to pick up a pizza. The store was "over the top" with a huge tree and Christmas decorations. The store smelled like a fresh cut tree. There was Christmas music in the air and as each customer entered they were greeted with an enthusiastic "Merry Christmas" from the staff behind the counter dressed like elves.

The owner was dressed in a Santa hat pushing around a cart, dispensing hot cider; eggnog and home made Christmas cookies to customers while they waited for their pizzas. I looked around at the rest of the people and saw something I didn't see all day - Happy People.

As I sat there and waited for my order, I felt happy. Going with the feeling, I turned to the table next to me and said "Merry Christmas" and four happy people in unison wished me a "Merry Christmas." I turned to the table on the other side of me, and they wished me "Merry Christmas" first.

I watched smiles appear on the faces of customers as they walked in the door and were greeted sincerely by the elves. The owner wished me a "Merry Christmas" again as he refilled my cider.

The waitress beat me to the draw wishing me a "Merry Christmas" as she delivered my order. I experienced more Christmas spirit in a pizza place than I did in the mall.

I am pleased to be able to say there is still Christmas spirit out there, but you just have to look a little harder than days gone by to find it. It is worth the effort. Finding it brought back many pleasant memories of past Christmas seasons. It didn't take much to take Christmas spirit off life support for me. All it took was happy and sincere people wishing one another a heartfelt "Merry Christmas."

The final confirmation for me that commercialism can be done in good taste without spoiling Christmas came with my pizza in a take-home box printed to look like a present. On the box was a red envelope with a card. On the front of the card was picture of the Santa (the owner) and his elves (the staff) holding pizzas with the letters MERRY CHRISTMAS spelled out in Toppings. Inside, the cynic in me was ready for a "spoiling moment" of pure and unadulterated commercialism in the form of an ad or a discount coupon inside the card.

Instead were the following words,

"From our Family to yours this season of Joy and Remembrance."

I started the day looking for something important to me I had feared lost. Just like the first Christmas taking place in a humble stable; I found the Christmas spirit alive and well in a humble pizza place.

Avoiding Mall Brawl

I have a confession to make. I have probably had one of the best Thanksgivings I have had in a long time. I didn't watch TV. I wasn't subjected to an endless barrage of ads pushing Holiday Sales. I wasn't in line at a Big Box Last Night waiting for Midnight Madness (appropriately named) along with tens of thousands of bargain hunters around the country. I stayed home this weekend and avoided the insanity.

Having done all my shopping very early buying mostly on line, I was done before Thanksgiving. And I was not the only one. Many people I talked to about their shopping plans were "mostly" finished before Thanksgiving. So it was interesting to hear on the news that traffic was heavy but buying in the stores was light.

Buying online this weekend was a different story. Wal-Mart's website was hit so hard on Black Friday it went down several times for a total of 15 minutes as a estimated 22 Million People tried to access the TV and Electronic pages. Wal-Mart estimates this blackout probably cost them hundreds of thousands of dollars as frustrated shoppers went to other sites to buy.

E-Stores are reporting a different story. Ebay sold 14,000+ of the hard to get Xbox at an average price of $1,200, or nearly three times the retail price. Amazon.com sold out of its entire supply of X-Boxes in 29 seconds. Sold out it's entire supply of Mongoose Mountain bikes and Barbie Dolls in 15 minutes. Pricegrabber.com saw a 225% spike in traffic compared to the rest of November and most of that spike was on the TOY pages. Shopping.com saw a 40% spike in traffic over the daily average for the rest of the month.

The Nation Retail Foundation forecasts that 137 million shoppers will visit retail stores this Christmas shopping season (between Black Friday and Christmas Eve). Ebay had 7.5 million shoppers on Black Friday alone.

Depending on which research group you watched on the news shows this weekend; the estimates for online retail sales over the Thanksgiving weekend were between $1.15 billion and $1.73 billion. The general consensus is that web sales this Christmas season will jump up 30% percent over the same period last year to more than $27 billion.

The big box stores saw huge crowds and disappointing sales. To make matters worse, the cost of drawing in the crowds was huge considering the level or promotional pricing and discounting. Wal-Mart is now projecting flat sales to -.01% lower than last year for Black Friday. Other stores are reporting similar experiences.

I didn't shop online to save money. Truth be known; including shipping and insurance, I probably paid close to what those people who were standing in line paid.

I shopped online to avoid the mayhem usually associated with Christmas shopping. I hate the "hyper intensity" and "shark feeding frenzied" atmosphere in the stores. I hate the bad background music interlaced with endless "price promotion" broadcasts. I hate the way the stores are so full of merchandise, signs, and displays you have to almost walk sideways in the aisles.

I hate the way the worst in people come out in what is supposed to be one of the most joyful times of the year as local news delights in the endless running of the "road rage" incidents captured on video in mall parking lots.

I hate having to run gauntlet of panhandlers in the parking lots and coupon/flyer dispensers strategically positioned at the entrances like offensive linemen; and I am not alone feeling this way. The last couple of years the purchase of GIFT CARDS has increased dramatically. It is estimated this year there will be a 50% increase in GIFT CARD purchases this year.

I personally think that unless stores can improve the shopping experience to the point they won't need to use aggressive discounts to lure shoppers, the pendulum is going to keep swinging towards e-shopping.

I think the differences in shopping experiences between store shoppers and e-shoppers this Black Friday was best summed up by a television news interview of a woman who had been standing in line at a store since noon on Thanksgiving waiting for the store to open at Midnight. "I'm feeling pretty stupid about now."

Ten Degrees of Separation

The other day I had a unique experience. I went to Sacramento and forgot my cell phone. It was like line out of a Joni Mitchell song. "You don't know what you've got till its gone."

When you don't have a cell phone you begin to notice how much you rely on cell phones. It wasn't until I got to Starbucks I was even aware I didn't have my phone. By then it was too late. I discovered it missing when I reached for it to call friends and let them know I had arrived in town so we could coordinate a meeting spot for lunch.

The first thing I noticed was that everyone else was on the phone…but me. The second thing I noticed is that pay phones are now as rare as…as pay phones. I went to Wal-Mart. All the pay phones that used to be at there were gone. I walked over to the fast food joint next door and could see the painted outline where two pay phones used to be.

I went across the street to the gas station. I know this station well because it is my regular refueling stop on my way to the Bay Area. I walked around to the side and the payphones were gone. How could a gas station not have a pay phone? Isn't there some kind of Federal Law mandating payphones at gas stations?

I went inside to ask where the pay phones were and was told they were gone because people kept vandalizing them. The Vandals kicked the Roman Army out of Germany in 406 A.D. starting the decline of the Roman Empire and now they've kicked pay phones out of just about every public place they occupied before. Could this be a trend?

In ten years the cell phone has gone from being a luxury gadget to being a vital necessity. You don't believe me? Leave your cell phone home for a day and see how much you depend on it.

This whole episode reminded me of a prophecy first made in the movie "The President's Analyst." In the movie, the President of THE PHONE COMPANY is making a chilling prediction. He wants the president of the United States to pass legislation to implant a phone chip in every newborn's head so that in a few years "all you will need to do to talk to anyone, anywhere at anytime is just think of them and you'll be instantly connected."

That day is already here. There is now a chip in everyone's hand (unless they leave it at home) and it didn't take legislation. There is no doubt in my mind that the cell phone companies are working the implants as I write this.

This little experience has caused me to take a very careful look at my life. Contrary to popular belief there are not Six Degrees of Separation between two strangers, there are ten (555) 555-5555.

Sign of the Times

I had to go out of town to one of the three cities left in the US still not served by Southwest Airlines. I had to fly another airline. I hadn’t flown them in quite a while and was looking forward to seeing if they learned anything while they were in bankruptcy.

As we pulled up to curbside check into I felt great. Southwest had about 40 people in line at curbside check in and my carrier had 5 people in line. I was thinking to myself this just might work out. Half an hour later, the Southwest line was gone and I still had one person in front of me. This was not a good sign.

Traveling by air these days is bad enough without having to deal with surly attitudes. My bad was overweight by eleven pounds and I was directed to check in inside because he is not allowed to accept over weight baggage. I went inside and there was another long line. It was still two hours before my flight and now I was having doubts that I was going to make my flight.

When I got inside, I asked why they couldn’t handle me outside, and the man behind the counter said, “I don’t know why not. All they had to do was tell you to move some clothes from one bag to the other.”

Fortunately, the flight was delayed and I made it just as they were boarding the plane. Then the irony struck me. I was happy my flight was delayed. This was not a good sign.

The flight was an evening flight – the kind of flight where most of the passengers are business travelers. The airline used to charge for head sets to watch the movie, but now they are free. I was just beginning to have hope this would be a pleasant flight after all, and then announced the movie: “Over the Hedge.” There was not a kid on the flight, just a load of grumpy tired business men moving from point A to point B.

The bad thing about the collapse of the airline industry has been full planes. Apparently the airline industry hasn’t noticed American’s are getting bigger. So the only thing that made flying comfortable was the empty middle seats. With the fully occupied planes, the comfort is gone. This flight was no exception it was full and since I was traveling at the last minute, I was shoehorned into the dreaded center seat. As I approached my row, I knew it was going to be a tight fit because I am a big guy to begin with and the other seats were occupied by the a couple of guys that looked like linemen in the NFL. This was not a good sign.

Due to the extended check in – the long the long line in security, I was not able to stop to get a coffee for the flight as I normally did. Not that that would have helped since you can’t carry any fluids on planes any more. The flight was very turbulent. The turbulence kept the stewardesses in their seats and the drink cart in the galley. No movie, no reading, no comfort, no drinking. So I arrived at Denver parched, frustrated and exhausted.

I stressed trying to get out of the plane to make my connection as I fought the Universal law of flying that says: “The tighter your connections between flights, the further back in the cabin you will be seated and the slower the people in front of you will move as they exit the plane.”

Thank God, my connecting flight was having engine trouble. Now instead of forty minutes between flights, I now had 4 hours between flights while they scrounged up a spare plane. I was happy on another level about this delay. Prior to this I had serious concerns about the airline’s ability to get the baggage to my connecting flight on time. Now I am confident they will. I am happy my flight is going to be seriously late? This is not a good sign.

I use my time wisely. I return my calls. I respond to my email. I eat a late dinner. Now I have to kill three hours and thirty minutes.

I am a little giddy as I get on the plane because the computer system screwed up and assigned me an aisle seat. I should have known this was just the Universe’s way of setting me up for the fall one last time on this flight. After take off, I reached up to turn on my reading light…and it didn’t work.

The reading lights for everyone else worked. I realized I was being tested at the moment: What did I want more: to read my book, which would now require me to trade seats with the person in the middle seat; or to sit on the aisle? It wasn’t even close. I decided I would continue to sit on the aisle. Having made the decision not to move, I thought I would try to take a nap for the remaining three hours of the flight to Miami, but the Universe wasn’t finished with me yet… the seat refused to recline. This is not a good sign.

As I sit upright in the dark, I wonder if I can sue Southwest for not flying to Miami from Reno, and decide if I ever tried to do that I’d be condemned to a lifetime of “C” boarding passes (Southwest fliers will know what I am talking about.), so I let the urge pass and suffer in silence, upright, in the dark, for the next three hours.

I got to Miami. It was dark. It was late. It was raining. I was looking for some kind of sign that all my suffering was going to be worth it. That my trip under such adverse conditions was going to be a meaningful experience. It was going to be an enlightening experience. I was looking for a way to make lemonade out of my experience so far as I loaded my bags into the rental car.

At that point a homeless person wandering through the parking lot asked me for money, and when I refused, he opened his zipper and peed at me and said “Welcome to Miami asshole.” This was not a good sign.